The UK recession will end within three months, according to a report issued by accountants BDO Stoy Hayward.
The accountancy firm believe that the prompt fiscal stimulus package and bank recapitalisation scheme taken in the UK have helped the economy speed ahead in the race towards recovery.
The BDO Output Index - which measures short-run turnover expectations and order book strength - recently saw largest monthly increase in 13 years, rising from 92.3 in June to 95.1 in July.
"The UK seems to be reaping the benefits of a raft of well-timed and calculated moves to stimulate the economy. In stark comparison, sluggishness and indecision has held the Eurozone back from a quicker recovery," said Alex White, Partner at BDO Stoy Hayward.
www.ukba.co.uk
Showing posts with label economic climate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic climate. Show all posts
Wednesday, 5 August 2009
Sunday, 26 July 2009
One in three small businesses unaffected by recession
Six months after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) officially announced that the UK is in recession, a new report from Intuit, reveals how small businesses have been performing over the past 12 months.
The results of the research show that one in four small businesses felt no noticeable effect, and 35% had felt a negligible impact from the recession hitting the UK economy.
On the flip-side, one in twenty small businesses have been impacted so severely that their viability is in question.
Recession survival down to initiative and practical actions
Three quarters of small businesses put surviving the recession down to the strength of their own determination and initiative. Only 23% of respondents felt it had been easy to access external help and advice during the recession.
To survive the recession small business owners have used their initiative and adopted some sound business tactics. The most common initiative, used by 45% of respondents, has been to reduce overheads and tightly manage outgoings.
It may be a surprise to learn that the second most popular step, which nearly a third of small business owners took, was to introduce new products or services. This approach flies in the face of the common opinion that businesses should focus on their core operations during a downturn.
www.ukba.co.uk
The results of the research show that one in four small businesses felt no noticeable effect, and 35% had felt a negligible impact from the recession hitting the UK economy.
On the flip-side, one in twenty small businesses have been impacted so severely that their viability is in question.
Recession survival down to initiative and practical actions
Three quarters of small businesses put surviving the recession down to the strength of their own determination and initiative. Only 23% of respondents felt it had been easy to access external help and advice during the recession.
To survive the recession small business owners have used their initiative and adopted some sound business tactics. The most common initiative, used by 45% of respondents, has been to reduce overheads and tightly manage outgoings.
It may be a surprise to learn that the second most popular step, which nearly a third of small business owners took, was to introduce new products or services. This approach flies in the face of the common opinion that businesses should focus on their core operations during a downturn.
www.ukba.co.uk
Monday, 20 July 2009
Economic recovery in UK 'on hold'
The UK economy is set to shrink by 4.5% in this year, the biggest fall in a single year since 1945, according to an influential think-tank.
The downbeat forecast is more pessimistic than the consensus view, and considerably worse than the 3.5% fall predicted by the government.
The Ernst & Young Item Club also warned that hopes of economic recovery are "running ahead of reality".
The Item Club also warned of the threat posed to the economy from swine flu.
If doomsday predictions about the extent of the flu outbreak materialise, it forecast a further 3% contraction in GDP this year, on top of the 4.5%.
The flu could also wipe out any growth next year, with a worst case scenario of a further 1.2% contraction.
The Item Club also predicts that UK interest rates will be kept at their current level of 0.5% well into next year.
Read more: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8157876.stm
www.ukba.co.uk
The downbeat forecast is more pessimistic than the consensus view, and considerably worse than the 3.5% fall predicted by the government.
The Ernst & Young Item Club also warned that hopes of economic recovery are "running ahead of reality".
The Item Club also warned of the threat posed to the economy from swine flu.
If doomsday predictions about the extent of the flu outbreak materialise, it forecast a further 3% contraction in GDP this year, on top of the 4.5%.
The flu could also wipe out any growth next year, with a worst case scenario of a further 1.2% contraction.
The Item Club also predicts that UK interest rates will be kept at their current level of 0.5% well into next year.
Read more: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8157876.stm
www.ukba.co.uk
Tuesday, 7 July 2009
Government predictions are for the UK economy to shrink by 3.5% in 2009 and recover slowly in 2010 registering an increase of 1.25%
The economic destabilisation caused by the credit crunch has had a devastating effect upon the global economy, with particularly severe consequences for export-orientated economies as consumer demand fell due to the limitation of credit, unemployment increased and the financial sector tipped the real economy into recession.
Though the trend of these events could be forecast, the scale has taken many by surprise.
Government predictions are for the UK economy to shrink by 3.5% in 2009 and recover slowly in 2010 registering an increase of 1.25%, before resuming above trend growth in 2011 with a 3.5% increase in activity.
Other forecasters are more cautious. The British Chamber of Commerce predict -3.8% in 2009 and +0.6% in 2010, whilst the CBI suggest growth rates of -3.0% in 2009 and +0.7% in 2010. These estimates
are close to the consensus of a panel of economists, whose predictions are -3.7 and +0.7 accordingly.
Therefore, the broad view seems to be that the economy will begin to recover in Spring 2010 and produce a modest net rate of growth by the end of that year.
Author: Phil Whyman, Professor of Economics at the University of Central Lancashire
Read more: http://www.fpb.org/hottips/440/Mid_year_economic_forecast.htm
Source: Forum for Private Business - www.fpb.org
www.ukba.co.uk
Though the trend of these events could be forecast, the scale has taken many by surprise.
Government predictions are for the UK economy to shrink by 3.5% in 2009 and recover slowly in 2010 registering an increase of 1.25%, before resuming above trend growth in 2011 with a 3.5% increase in activity.
Other forecasters are more cautious. The British Chamber of Commerce predict -3.8% in 2009 and +0.6% in 2010, whilst the CBI suggest growth rates of -3.0% in 2009 and +0.7% in 2010. These estimates
are close to the consensus of a panel of economists, whose predictions are -3.7 and +0.7 accordingly.
Therefore, the broad view seems to be that the economy will begin to recover in Spring 2010 and produce a modest net rate of growth by the end of that year.
Author: Phil Whyman, Professor of Economics at the University of Central Lancashire
Read more: http://www.fpb.org/hottips/440/Mid_year_economic_forecast.htm
Source: Forum for Private Business - www.fpb.org
www.ukba.co.uk
Friday, 26 June 2009
The number of new foreign investments in British companies increased by 11% last year, despite the onset of the global economic downturn
Businesses from 53 different countries - the largest variety ever in a single year - invested in UK firms in 2008, maintaining the UK's position as Europe's number one investment destination.
With office rates decreasing, the pound falling against the dollar and a wider talent pool than ever before immediately available due to job losses, foreign companies have seen the recession as a great time to invest in the UK.
"At a time when companies across the world are tightening their belts and focusing their investment in the sectors and countries where it will bring the most benefit, these results are testament to the fundamental strengths of the UK’s economy,” said Business Secretary Lord Mandelson.
Source: UKTI
www.ukba.co.uk
With office rates decreasing, the pound falling against the dollar and a wider talent pool than ever before immediately available due to job losses, foreign companies have seen the recession as a great time to invest in the UK.
"At a time when companies across the world are tightening their belts and focusing their investment in the sectors and countries where it will bring the most benefit, these results are testament to the fundamental strengths of the UK’s economy,” said Business Secretary Lord Mandelson.
Source: UKTI
www.ukba.co.uk
Thursday, 21 May 2009
Around 60% of small and medium-sized firms in London are concentrating on expanding their businesses during the recession
The survey of more than 3,000 small businesses in the capital found that despite three-quarters being affected by the economic downturn the majority of small firms do not want to just consolidate their firm, but actually expand.
The poll also found that 42% of small companies are looking to exploit new business opportunities and 17% are developing new products and services to increase their market share.
"There's a great deal of optimism in the face of the recession, with the majority of SMEs remaining committed to growth," said Patrick Elliott, chief executive of Business Link in London
Source: Business Link London.
www.ukba.co.uk
The poll also found that 42% of small companies are looking to exploit new business opportunities and 17% are developing new products and services to increase their market share.
"There's a great deal of optimism in the face of the recession, with the majority of SMEs remaining committed to growth," said Patrick Elliott, chief executive of Business Link in London
Source: Business Link London.
www.ukba.co.uk
Wednesday, 1 April 2009
A Business Rate Rise on 1st April is Economic Madness
The government has announced that it will allow a record 5% rise in business rates
to go ahead on April 1st causing widespread anger among business groups, who claim that many companies will not be able to afford the rise in such difficult economic times.
The 5% increase in the rate will be the biggest since the current system was set-up in 1993. The increase in the rate is based on Retail Price Inflation figures from last September, when prices were very high.
However, since last September the UK economy has officially entered recession and unemployment now stands at over 2m. There are fears that the increase in the rate will cause some small businesses to cease trading.
"Labour is dragging local firms down the road to ruin. It is the height of economic madness to be increasing taxes on local firms in the depth of recession," said Caroline Spelman, shadow communities spokeswoman.
Source: www.newbusiness.co.uk
www.ukba.co.uk
to go ahead on April 1st causing widespread anger among business groups, who claim that many companies will not be able to afford the rise in such difficult economic times.
The 5% increase in the rate will be the biggest since the current system was set-up in 1993. The increase in the rate is based on Retail Price Inflation figures from last September, when prices were very high.
However, since last September the UK economy has officially entered recession and unemployment now stands at over 2m. There are fears that the increase in the rate will cause some small businesses to cease trading.
"Labour is dragging local firms down the road to ruin. It is the height of economic madness to be increasing taxes on local firms in the depth of recession," said Caroline Spelman, shadow communities spokeswoman.
Source: www.newbusiness.co.uk
www.ukba.co.uk
Wednesday, 4 March 2009
Recession Insights - Top 10 Critical Business Priorities
1 Provide excellent customer service. We can’t survive without customers, so don’t forget them. Listen and respond to their needs, demonstrate the value you place in them. Review customer and client feedback formally – this will be the litmus test of what you are delivering (and how) and will help to inform positive changes where necessary. Always go the extra mile for your most profitable and loyal customers.
2 Innovate. Develop new unique products and services to distinguish you from the competition. Focus on those that add tangible value or reduce costs for your customers and clients.
3 Invest in people. Offer customer-focused training and reward high performers. The most talented and valuable members of your workforce are those most able to move on during a slowdown. Introduce simple, cost-effective recognition programmes and allow them the flexibility to work where or when they need to.
4 Maintain quality. If you trade on quality, do not cut costs that are visible to the customer in the short term, compromising your reputation in the long term.
5 Reduce debt and manage cashflow. Tighten internal financial procedures immediately and look to secure longer term contracts where possible. The single biggest regret of struggling businesses was that they did this too late, or not at all, which speaks volumes.
6 Respond to the market quickly. Be flexible. Ccapitalise on your size and ability to change direction quickly. Carry out detailed risk assessments on all areas of your business and customer base – identify ‘safe’ areas to focus on.
7 Prioritise marketing. Do not cut budgets or stop advertising as a knee-jerk reaction to challenging trading conditions. The most successful businesses use slowdowns as an opportunity to grow, share and broadcast their message louder than the competition. Crucially, you need to remind your customers that you’re still in business and instil confidence in your existing clients. Slowdowns also offer greater scope for canny businesses to negotiate for favourable deals.
8 Forecasting accurately and plan realistically. Super SMEs tended to have a ‘slowdown plan’ in place. If you haven’t written one, start now. Encourage open and honest communication with your teams on what is realistic. Revisit old order-books to ensure no opportunities are being missed.
9 Know your market. Increase market knowledge and insight. Be seen as the thought-leader in your field and enable your workforce to become experts through sharing information. Use readily available free research online to boost your expertise.
10 Invest in technologies to help your people. The need to work more efficiently has never been higher up the agenda. Invest wisely in IT solutions focused on optimising your workforce productivity, reducing wastage and enabling smarter (not necessarily harder or longer) working.
Extract from: A Guide To Plain Sailing Through The Recession - Plantronic
s - www.plantronics.com.
The full guide can be downloaded here: http://www.sme-guide.co.uk/
www.ukba.co.uk
2 Innovate. Develop new unique products and services to distinguish you from the competition. Focus on those that add tangible value or reduce costs for your customers and clients.
3 Invest in people. Offer customer-focused training and reward high performers. The most talented and valuable members of your workforce are those most able to move on during a slowdown. Introduce simple, cost-effective recognition programmes and allow them the flexibility to work where or when they need to.
4 Maintain quality. If you trade on quality, do not cut costs that are visible to the customer in the short term, compromising your reputation in the long term.
5 Reduce debt and manage cashflow. Tighten internal financial procedures immediately and look to secure longer term contracts where possible. The single biggest regret of struggling businesses was that they did this too late, or not at all, which speaks volumes.
6 Respond to the market quickly. Be flexible. Ccapitalise on your size and ability to change direction quickly. Carry out detailed risk assessments on all areas of your business and customer base – identify ‘safe’ areas to focus on.
7 Prioritise marketing. Do not cut budgets or stop advertising as a knee-jerk reaction to challenging trading conditions. The most successful businesses use slowdowns as an opportunity to grow, share and broadcast their message louder than the competition. Crucially, you need to remind your customers that you’re still in business and instil confidence in your existing clients. Slowdowns also offer greater scope for canny businesses to negotiate for favourable deals.
8 Forecasting accurately and plan realistically. Super SMEs tended to have a ‘slowdown plan’ in place. If you haven’t written one, start now. Encourage open and honest communication with your teams on what is realistic. Revisit old order-books to ensure no opportunities are being missed.
9 Know your market. Increase market knowledge and insight. Be seen as the thought-leader in your field and enable your workforce to become experts through sharing information. Use readily available free research online to boost your expertise.
10 Invest in technologies to help your people. The need to work more efficiently has never been higher up the agenda. Invest wisely in IT solutions focused on optimising your workforce productivity, reducing wastage and enabling smarter (not necessarily harder or longer) working.
Extract from: A Guide To Plain Sailing Through The Recession - Plantronic
s - www.plantronics.com.
The full guide can be downloaded here: http://www.sme-guide.co.uk/
www.ukba.co.uk
Tuesday, 3 March 2009
Recession Insights - Winning Behaviour
It is not just lack of investment in technology that characterises under performance in SMEs. Our research found that SMEs are also more likely to have reduced rather than increased training budgets over the past 12 months (37% have reduced training budgets compared to 24% who have increased them).
in a direct reversal, however, we also identified a new breed of 'Super SMEs’ (those that are actually booming through the slowdown) which are more likely to have increased (rather than decreased) training investment (39% have spent more on their training in the past 12 months while 28% reduced their training spend).
Similarly, while overall SME investment in marketing fell in the past 12 months (36% reduced marketing spend while 32% increased it), amongst our Super SMEs, 43% increased their marketing spend, compared to less than one in five who reduced it. There was also a net decrease overall in IT infrastructure spend. 29% spent less on this, while 27% spent more. Amongst Super SMEs 47% spent more on IT infrastructure and just 16% spent less.
The trends remain the same for employee benefits, flexible working and communication technology and new product development. In each instance the general trend amongst SMEs was to reduce spend. However amongst those SMEs which are currently experiencing growth, or have greater confidence in their long-term future, spend was up across the board.
Extract from: A Guide To Plain Sailing Through The Recession - Plantronic
s - www.plantronics.com.
The full guide can be downloaded here: http://www.sme-guide.co.uk/
www.ukba.co.uk
in a direct reversal, however, we also identified a new breed of 'Super SMEs’ (those that are actually booming through the slowdown) which are more likely to have increased (rather than decreased) training investment (39% have spent more on their training in the past 12 months while 28% reduced their training spend).
Similarly, while overall SME investment in marketing fell in the past 12 months (36% reduced marketing spend while 32% increased it), amongst our Super SMEs, 43% increased their marketing spend, compared to less than one in five who reduced it. There was also a net decrease overall in IT infrastructure spend. 29% spent less on this, while 27% spent more. Amongst Super SMEs 47% spent more on IT infrastructure and just 16% spent less.
The trends remain the same for employee benefits, flexible working and communication technology and new product development. In each instance the general trend amongst SMEs was to reduce spend. However amongst those SMEs which are currently experiencing growth, or have greater confidence in their long-term future, spend was up across the board.
Extract from: A Guide To Plain Sailing Through The Recession - Plantronic
s - www.plantronics.com.
The full guide can be downloaded here: http://www.sme-guide.co.uk/
www.ukba.co.uk
Monday, 2 March 2009
Recession Insights - Mobility & IT
One of the more striking findings of the research is that businesses that have invested strongly in IT infrastructure are currently showing the highest levels of performance. In particular, investment in mobility, thus optimising individual productivity in a climate where staffing levels are being reduced, appears to be emblematic of the ability to plan strategically and weather the vagaries of the economy.
Businesses that are fully enabled for remote and mobile working said that they are more than twice as likely to review their business plan on a monthly basis compared to those firms that have enabled none of their staff for mobile working (34% compared to 16%).
In general we found also that SMEs that have fully mobile workforces are 10% less likely to have been hit by the slowdown and are also 60% more likely to forecast turnover growth compared to SMEs that do not enaAble mobile working.
These figures are symptomatic of the fact that SME are all too often overlooking the most valuable asset of all – their employees.
The upshot is that 45% of SMEs do not believe they have equipped their workforce with the technology to reach their full potential. Only 37% of SMEs say that their workforce are fully equipped to work where and when they want, while just 4 out of 10 say that they provide the training and career development to maximise their workforce’s potential.
In a recent survey for communications company Aavaya, 92% of UK workers said they would find it attractive to work for a company that offered flexible working and 78% said they would consider changing jobs for the chance to work flexibly. Without the requisite tools, understanding and investment to thrive or survive, SMEs ignoring these sentiments risk losing their most unique proposition – the human talent that had previously been attracted away from the corporate world to seek a more exciting and fulfilling working life.
Extract from: A Guide To Plain Sailing Through The Recession - Plantronic
s - www.plantronics.com.
The full guide can be downloaded here: http://www.sme-guide.co.uk/
www.ukba.co.uk
Businesses that are fully enabled for remote and mobile working said that they are more than twice as likely to review their business plan on a monthly basis compared to those firms that have enabled none of their staff for mobile working (34% compared to 16%).
In general we found also that SMEs that have fully mobile workforces are 10% less likely to have been hit by the slowdown and are also 60% more likely to forecast turnover growth compared to SMEs that do not enaAble mobile working.
These figures are symptomatic of the fact that SME are all too often overlooking the most valuable asset of all – their employees.
The upshot is that 45% of SMEs do not believe they have equipped their workforce with the technology to reach their full potential. Only 37% of SMEs say that their workforce are fully equipped to work where and when they want, while just 4 out of 10 say that they provide the training and career development to maximise their workforce’s potential.
In a recent survey for communications company Aavaya, 92% of UK workers said they would find it attractive to work for a company that offered flexible working and 78% said they would consider changing jobs for the chance to work flexibly. Without the requisite tools, understanding and investment to thrive or survive, SMEs ignoring these sentiments risk losing their most unique proposition – the human talent that had previously been attracted away from the corporate world to seek a more exciting and fulfilling working life.
Extract from: A Guide To Plain Sailing Through The Recession - Plantronic
s - www.plantronics.com.
The full guide can be downloaded here: http://www.sme-guide.co.uk/
www.ukba.co.uk
Sunday, 1 March 2009
Recession Insights - Planning & Strategy
The message is clear. Businesses that review their business plans monthly are most likely to be riding the economic storm. According to our research, they are 42% more likely to be unaffected or booming during the slowdown. Businesses who are confident about the future are also three times more likely to have had a strategy in place for a worsened economic climate than those who fear for their survival.
One in twenty SMEs admitted that they don’t really have a business plan of any description (never mind a revised strategy for a global slowdown) while 17% said that their business plan only gets reviewed and revised once a year. At the root of this problem is the fact that 62% of all SMEs have never had to face a slowdown before. They never really needed a plan when times were good, and never anticipated that they would need one for the future. Six out of ten SMEs did not have a plan or strategy in place for a worsened economic climate.
A worrying trend for the wider economy, and indeed the future, is that the ‘young guns’ who have thrived for the past decade or more through good economic conditions were least likely to have put a strategy in place for bleaker times. Two thirds did not have a plan ready for harsher times, compared to 40% of 55 year olds, who by virtue of their age and experience, have seen something similar (if even vaguely) before. The younger working nation have much to learn from mentors of previous slowdowns and recession.
Extract from: A Guide To Plain Sailing Through The Recession - Plantronics - www.plantronics.com.
The full guide can be downloaded here: http://www.sme-guide.co.uk/
www.ukba.co.uk
One in twenty SMEs admitted that they don’t really have a business plan of any description (never mind a revised strategy for a global slowdown) while 17% said that their business plan only gets reviewed and revised once a year. At the root of this problem is the fact that 62% of all SMEs have never had to face a slowdown before. They never really needed a plan when times were good, and never anticipated that they would need one for the future. Six out of ten SMEs did not have a plan or strategy in place for a worsened economic climate.
A worrying trend for the wider economy, and indeed the future, is that the ‘young guns’ who have thrived for the past decade or more through good economic conditions were least likely to have put a strategy in place for bleaker times. Two thirds did not have a plan ready for harsher times, compared to 40% of 55 year olds, who by virtue of their age and experience, have seen something similar (if even vaguely) before. The younger working nation have much to learn from mentors of previous slowdowns and recession.
Extract from: A Guide To Plain Sailing Through The Recession - Plantronics - www.plantronics.com.
The full guide can be downloaded here: http://www.sme-guide.co.uk/
www.ukba.co.uk
Thursday, 12 February 2009
It's not all doom and gloom!
A recent email from one of our UKBA members in response to another doom and gloom report from one of the banks
Don't believe everything [anything] you read in the newspapers. My experiences over the last few weeks:
1. This morning I had a call from a RBS/NatWest Regional Director who I have known for many years. He is asking me if I can point him in the right direction to find people who want to borrow money from the bank. He tells me he has no restrictions on the amount he can lend - the hurdles in the credit approval department are a bit higher - but still nobody wants his money!
2. I have a long standing Client who has asked me to do more work for him - he runs an up-market bistro. His turnover is still increasing month on month. We had to abandon our meeting last Wednesday as the rest of the place was so full and he needed the table for paying customers!
3. I was in a meeting with the Chairman of the Peak District Tourist Board earlier this month and he was telling me that bookings for 2009 are already up on 2008.
4. I have friend who owns a pub/restaurant in the Peak District and he had his best year ever in 2008. I called in for a bite to eat on my way home at around 7.00pm one Monday evening last month (my wife was at work so I decided on the best option!) and he had only one table free!
5. Our eldest son's girlfriend works at Thompson Holiday's head office. She is working at weekends to keep up with demand.
6. I am trying to get some Turnaround work out of the banks and, other than complete basket cases, there is hardly any work going!
7. I have a friend who runs a large independent bus company. He tells me they have had 5% real growth in 2008 and continuing into 2009.
8. I have a cousin who runs the fleet of trucks which delivers the food to a very well known high street name. He had to put on a full extra shift - nationwide - just before Christmas or their shelves would have been empty.
In fairness, anybody involved in house building and associated businesses, the motor industry and some parts of the retail industry are finding it really tough out there. It might be cold up here in the frozen Midlands, but the economy is far from being a lost cause.
Don't believe everything [anything] you read in the newspapers. My experiences over the last few weeks:
1. This morning I had a call from a RBS/NatWest Regional Director who I have known for many years. He is asking me if I can point him in the right direction to find people who want to borrow money from the bank. He tells me he has no restrictions on the amount he can lend - the hurdles in the credit approval department are a bit higher - but still nobody wants his money!
2. I have a long standing Client who has asked me to do more work for him - he runs an up-market bistro. His turnover is still increasing month on month. We had to abandon our meeting last Wednesday as the rest of the place was so full and he needed the table for paying customers!
3. I was in a meeting with the Chairman of the Peak District Tourist Board earlier this month and he was telling me that bookings for 2009 are already up on 2008.
4. I have friend who owns a pub/restaurant in the Peak District and he had his best year ever in 2008. I called in for a bite to eat on my way home at around 7.00pm one Monday evening last month (my wife was at work so I decided on the best option!) and he had only one table free!
5. Our eldest son's girlfriend works at Thompson Holiday's head office. She is working at weekends to keep up with demand.
6. I am trying to get some Turnaround work out of the banks and, other than complete basket cases, there is hardly any work going!
7. I have a friend who runs a large independent bus company. He tells me they have had 5% real growth in 2008 and continuing into 2009.
8. I have a cousin who runs the fleet of trucks which delivers the food to a very well known high street name. He had to put on a full extra shift - nationwide - just before Christmas or their shelves would have been empty.
In fairness, anybody involved in house building and associated businesses, the motor industry and some parts of the retail industry are finding it really tough out there. It might be cold up here in the frozen Midlands, but the economy is far from being a lost cause.
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