The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has today published its September 2009 Economic Forecast. Despite a further downward revision in GDP expectations for this year, the BCC is more upbeat about economic growth in 2010, and has reduced its forecast for peak unemployment.
The main features of the BCC forecast are:
The UK will see a large GDP decline of 4.3% in 2009, followed by positive growth of 1.1% in 2010 and 1.9% in 2011. In June we predicted a 3.8% GDP fall for 2009 and a small 0.6% increase in 2010.
The current recession - recording peak to trough declines of 5.5% - is much worse than the recession of the early 1990s. However, it is less severe than the early 1980s recession, when GDP recorded cumulative falls of 6.0%.
Further big increases in unemployment are expected, but at a reduced pace. Unemployment is likely to rise from 2.43 million to a peak of just over 3 million, or 9.6% of the workforce, in mid-2010. In June we predicted unemployment would hit 3.2 million.
Public sector borrowing is forecast to total some 12.5% of GDP in 2009-10 and 2010-11. Public sector debt is set to rise to dangerous levels in the next few years, in excess of 80% of GDP.
The BCC believes that the MPC will use the full £175bn allocated to the Quantitative Easing (QE) programme. Another increase in the size of the programme, to at least £200 billion, will probably be needed to ensure that the economy does not falter.
Read more: http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/zones/policy/press-releases_1/recovery-has-started-but-economy-still-faces-huge-risks.html
www.ukba.co.uk
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